3DTV: Where will the hype lead? Winners and losers as always

The recent Consumer Electronic Show was the first time that the 3D TV lobby championed their product. Not one, not two, but virtually every TV set manufacturer and a lot of other companies were showing their 3D solution. At the same time, HDMI brought out a standard for 3D TV. Sky talked about the start of its 3D sports service – available, perhaps, before anyone can actually get hold of a 3D set. Even the Digital TV Group (DTG), a UK committee set up to bring digital TV to the market, has jumped on the wagon to say ‘We need standardisation’. Finally an element of sense.

The recent HD DVD/Blu-ray stand-off showed that there are winners and losers – to the victor the spoils. Blu-ray won, HD DVD was a lot of money down the drain. If there was one standard, say Blu-ray, from the start then consumers would have entered the market quicker and devices would already been 20% cheaper than they are now. Instead, the ‘which standard should I go for?’ left people watching from the sideline and mass-market production on standby.

What about 3D TV? In this case the problem could be more serious. This time there are two standards to go for. The TV, will it be polarised light (LG) or shuttered glasses (Sony and Panasonic). These are not interchangeable. However, let’s assume that the consumer decides that they like the Sony system best. Then the problem of delivery of the content. Going with Sky is an easy choice. Sky’s ability to bring technology to the consumer is renowned, but what happens if you don’t want to pay £35 for your subscription, £10 for HD, £20 for the sports and movie channels you want and, I assume, another £20 odd for 3D content? Then you have to look at FreeSat or FreeView. And these will require another box and more capital outlay and so it seems best to ignore 3D altogether.

There are two bits of good news. Blu-ray 3D has been approved. So it was good that we only have one high-def movie standard. Also, the interconnect standard is set. Assuming a company like Sony does not decide to bring out a cable to compete with HDMI (Memory Stick anyone). So, connecting the set top box and the TV should not be a problem. However, that still leaves enough decisions to ensure that 3D TV’s uptake is slowed by competing options and the 3D industry trickles forward rather than arrives with a three dimensional explosion.