All the glitters is not gold, and neither is everything that says Android on the box

It's not time, yet, to start predicting that the Android "hype cycle" will crash; but it is time to start warning people that there's going to be a lot of dross sold as gold simply because it's a phone with the little green robot on the box. And Gartner, the consultancy which invented the hype cycle, reckons we should beware the "trough of disillusionment".

The news which stirred all this up was not the exciting news that Dell is going to go with Android for its next phone. No, it was a Gartner research report which mentioned Windows Mobile 6.5 which is almost bound to be a flop, say Gartner researchers.

The good news for Microsoft comes from Nokia, reports Gartner. Today Microsoft announced it is going to work with Nokia "to bring key communication and collaboration tools to the E series devices and later other Nokia Symbian handsets. This includes Office mobile, (Word, Powerpoint, Excel and OneNote), OCS IM and presence, mobile access to Sharepoint portals and SystemCentre device management."

It sounds like great news for Nokia. It is. "This is good news for Nokia, as it will make E series devices more attractive to those enterprises who use Microsoft technology. This is also good for Microsoft on a deeper level, because there's another game being played here," commented our favourite Gartner insider today, PR bunny Holly Stevens. "Over the next couple of years Microsoft will face greater competition in mobile email, unified communications and collaboration from a wide range of organisations such as Cisco, Google and RIM. Being available on Symbian - the dominant smartphone platform - will help Microsoft fight these competitors."

And of course, that's great news for Microsoft but not, of course, for Windows Mobile team aren't ecstatic either. "Despite loud protestations that Microsoft is deeply committed to WinMo they wouldn't have needed this alliance with Nokia if WinMo were the leading smartphone operating system. But it's only in 4th place, which isn't good enough given all those years of investment. I see this as a tacit admission from Microsoft that WinMo hasn't made the grade."

The appearance of a Dell Android phone is big hype. It's been written up by hypesters who really ought to know better people who should be reminding customers: "Why would you buy a phone from a PC company? Go to someone who knows how to make phones, for goodness sake!"

Here's Nick Jones again (his blog) today: "Android is riding the hype cycle roller coaster at the moment and I think it's right at the top of a hill and heading into a dip. Not in terms of the platform itself, it's a great mobile OS and there are lots of nice devices in the pipeline. We're optimistic about Android, we expect it to hit the number two position in smartphone market share in a few years."

Jones and his colleagues think Android probably won't displace Symbian as the leader, but it will push platforms like RIM and Windows Mobile further down the rankings. He says: "My concern is for the vendors manufacturing all those Android phones."

Lots of people have jumped on the Android bandwagon including some companies with no real handset experience such as Acer, observes Jones - and he added Dell and Garmin to that list.

"They'll probably be joined by a few more manufacturers in 2010 who see Android as their entry ticket to fame and riches in an exciting new market. But these Android lemmings will be sorry because life isn't that simple."

After every hype peak, comes the trough of disillusionment, which can last quite a while before the true market growth sets in. The good news for Symbian is: you've got a couple of years to sort out the new open source Symbian market for software. The bad news: "It's only two years. You better work like crazy"